Bangladesh Faces a New Border Crisis as Dhaka Rejects Returnees Amid India’s Illegal Migration Crackdown
Bangladesh Faces a New Border Crisis as Dhaka Rejects Returnees Amid India’s Illegal Migration CrackdownA humanitarian and diplomatic standoff is unfolding al...
Anamitra Chattopadhyay | India | The record of journalist persecution that has emerged from the period of Muhammad Yunus\'s rule is nothing short of shocking.Unprecedented Persecution of Journalists Under Yunus; Calls Grow for Nobel Prize to Be RevokedThe record of journalist persecution that has emerged from the period of Muhammad Yunus\'s rule is nothing short of shocking.As head of Grameen Bank, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Many critics have long argued that Muhammad Yunus is the architect of a business model that profits by trapping the poorest people in poor countries in cycles of high-interest debt. Ever since that model received international recognition through the Nobel Prize, aided, according to critics, by the direct intervention of influential friends in the United States, controversy has surrounded both the award and the model itself. After 18 months of governing Bangladesh, Yunus\'s actions have also come under intense scrutiny. His government suspended the country\'s vaccination programme. As a result, with herd immunity shattered, the number of child deaths from measles is reportedly approaching 600, while infections have surpassed one hundred thousand. Now, the record of journalist persecution under Yunus that has come to light is equally alarming. Many are demanding that the Nobel authorities revoke Yunus\'s Nobel Prize over what they describe as grave human rights violations. After the departure of the Yunus government, journalists who had found themselves cornered, regardless of political affiliation, formed an organisation called the Anti-Persecution Journalists Front. Bringing together information from across the country, the organisation has compiled and published a detailed account of the alleged persecution. According to the report, the Yunus government implicated more than 500 journalists in what it describes as fabricated criminal cases carrying severe charges, including murder. A statement issued by the organisation says: \"More than fifty journalists were arrested. Thirteen journalists were killed. In addition, around 1,200 journalists lost their jobs. Government accreditation cards of 168 professional journalists were revoked. Memberships of more than 700 journalists were cancelled or suspended by various press clubs, including the National Press Club.\" Officials of the organisation state that during Yunus\'s tenure, 47 journalists across the country were arrested, including Shahriar Kabir, Mozammel Babu, Shyamal Dutta, Shakil Ahmed, Farzana Rupa, Sheikh Jamal, Manjurul Alam Panna and Anis Alamgir. Only a small number of them have since been released on bail. The organisation further alleges that 13 journalists, including Mehedi Hasan, Shakil Hossain, Tahir Zaman, ATM Turab, Pradip Kumar Bhowmik and Sohel Akhanji, were killed.The Anti-Persecution Journalists Front also states that supporters of Yunus were responsible for acts of vandalism, attacks and arson targeting the offices of BTV, 71 TV, Somoy TV, DBC News, Gaan Bangla, ATN News, ATN Bangla, My TV, Bijoy TV, News24, and the newspapers Amader Orthoniti, Amader Notun Shomoy, Dainik Mukhopatro, Kaler Kantho, Bangladesh Pratidin, Daily Sun, Bangla News, Prothom Alo and The Daily Star. According to the statement, editors, news chiefs and journalists from various media organisations were subjected to pressure, resulting in the dismissal of approximately 1,200 journalists during Yunus\'s administration. Recently, journalists took to the streets of Dhaka, forming a human chain and demanding the withdrawal of all false cases filed against them. They called for the release of imprisoned journalists, justice for murdered journalists, reinstatement of those who lost their jobs, and the reopening of the offices of the two journalist organisations, DUJ and BFUJ. They also demanded justice for looting and arson attacks on newspaper offices, restoration of memberships cancelled by press clubs across the country, including the National Press Club, reversal of accreditation card cancellations, withdrawal of orders freezing journalists\' bank accounts, and removal of restrictions imposed on their foreign travel. Many campaigners are now characterising the organised persecution of journalists as a serious violation of human rights and are calling on the Nobel authorities to revoke Yunus\'s Nobel Prize. They argue that allowing such a ruler to continue being identified as a Nobel laureate damages the reputation and moral standing of the award itself. The BNP government led by Tarique Rahman recently completed its first 100 days in office after winning the election. Although no new cases or attacks against journalists have been reported under the current administration, the cases filed during Yunus\'s tenure have not yet been withdrawn. Police have reportedly failed to submit charge sheets against imprisoned journalists even after 18 to 20 months. Despite this, they have not been granted bail. In many instances, journalists who secured bail in existing cases have allegedly been implicated in new cases and kept behind bars. During a meeting with editors, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman assured media representatives that his government does not believe in suppressing or controlling the press. He also promised to review the cases filed against journalists. However, according to critics, none of these commitments have been implemented during the government\'s first 100 days. Akhtar Hossain, Convenor of the Anti-Persecution Journalists Front, said: \"The responsibility for releasing journalists imprisoned during the Yunus era and ending the persecution of journalists now lies with the current government. If it fails to fulfil that responsibility, it will be assumed that it has taken a position against journalists. Public expectations from a political government are high. Please free the journalists." Anamitra Chattopadhyay is a senior journalist and columnist, formerly of Anandabazar Patrika and currently associated with Ei Samay. He specialises in Bangladesh affairs, South Asian politics and regional geopolitics. Editorial note for PolicyGov: "The views expressed in this article are those of the author. The allegations cited are based on claims made by the Anti-Persecution Journalists Front and have not been independently verified by PolicyGov."
Dr Ben BrindleResearcher, The Migration Observatory New official figures show that net migration to the United Kingdom has fallen significantly, dropping to 171,000 in 2025 — nearly half the level recorded in 2024 and far below the historic peak seen in 2023.According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the decline has been driven largely by fewer people arriving in the UK for work and study purposes following tighter immigration policies introduced by successive Conservative and Labour governments.Researchers at the Migration Observatory described the fall as a return to “pre-Brexit levels,” although experts argue the economic impact depends less on overall numbers and more on the types of migrants entering and leaving the country. Work and Student Migration DeclineThe sharpest reductions were recorded among non-EU nationals arriving for employment and higher education. Restrictions on student dependant visas, introduced under former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and later maintained by Labour, have contributed to a major fall in family-related migration.Despite the overall drop, analysts note that sectors such as healthcare, social care, retail, hospitality, and administrative services remain heavily dependent on foreign workers. Economists warn that continued reductions in migration could increase labour shortages in key industries already facing recruitment pressures. Migration Continues to Shape UK Population GrowthAlthough migration numbers are declining, net migration remains positive, meaning the UK’s foreign-born population continues to grow.Official estimates suggest the number of foreign-born residents increased from around 10.7 million in 2021 to 13.1 million by mid-2024. As a result, approximately one in six people now living in the UK was born overseas.Government projections also indicate that migration will continue to play a central role in UK population growth over the coming decades, particularly as birth rates decline and the population ages.Foreign Workers Remain Vital to Labour MarketSeparate labour market analysis shows that foreign-born workers now account for a growing share of the UK workforce. Since the end of 2020, the number of UK-born employees has declined while employment among non-UK nationals has increased steadily.The data highlights the continuing economic dependence on migrant labour, particularly in public services and lower-paid sectors that struggle to recruit domestically. Asylum Pressures Ease SlightlyHome Office statistics also show a modest reduction in asylum-related pressures.Between March 2023 and March 2026, the number of asylum seekers requiring accommodation support fell by approximately 13% to 98,000. During the same period, the proportion of asylum seekers housed in hotels dropped significantly from 42% to 21%, reflecting efforts to reduce the asylum backlog and move applicants into alternative accommodation.However, asylum and border control remain among the most politically contentious issues in British politics, with both Labour and Reform UK placing immigration at the centre of national debate.Policy experts say the latest figures may reduce short-term political pressure on the government, but broader questions remain over how Britain balances economic needs, border control, humanitarian responsibilities, and long-term demographic change.
News
UK Net Migration Falls by Nearly 50% Following Labour’s Push to Reduce Numbers
The United Kingdom’s net migration has fallen by almost 50%, according to newly released official figures, marking one of the sharpest annual declines in recent years and providing a political boost for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government.Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that net migration dropped to 171,000 in 2025, continuing a significant downward trend from the record 944,000 peak recorded in 2023. The figures are likely to strengthen Labour’s argument that tighter immigration controls and visa reforms are beginning to have a measurable impact, particularly as migration remains one of the most politically sensitive issues in British politics amid growing pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Sharp Decline in Work and Student-Related MigrationThe ONS data indicates that the number of non-EU nationals arriving in the UK for work-related reasons fell by 47% during 2025. Analysts say this was the primary factor behind the overall reduction in net migration.At the same time, emigration from the UK also declined slightly, though not enough to offset the significant fall in arrivals.One of the most notable changes came in the education sector. The number of family members accompanying international students fell by 87% after the UK government introduced restrictions on dependant visas in 2023 under former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The measures were later strengthened by successive Home Secretaries Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood under the Labour administration. Asylum Numbers and Hotel Use Also FallSeparate Home Office statistics show a decline in asylum-related pressures. The number of people claiming asylum in the year ending March 2026 fell by 12% to 94,000, although the figure remains historically high compared with previous years.The data also reveals that the number of asylum seekers housed in hotels dropped by around 9,800 during the first three months of 2026. Officials attributed the decrease mainly to efforts aimed at reducing the backlog of asylum applications.In addition, initial asylum claim grant rates continued to fall, declining from 49% in the year to March 2025 to 39% by March 2026. Political ImplicationsImmigration continues to dominate political debate across the UK, with both Labour and opposition parties facing increasing public pressure over border control, asylum processing, and the economic impact of migration.While Labour ministers argue the latest figures demonstrate that stricter policies are working, critics warn that long-term labour shortages in sectors such as healthcare, hospitality, and social care could worsen if migration levels continue to decline sharply.The latest migration statistics are expected to intensify discussions ahead of future elections, particularly as Reform UK continues to position immigration as a central national issue.
False claims of being shot, even living people shown as dead PBI finds at least 14 fake cases linked to incidents during the July mass uprising make more shorter and catchy headline with one line
Dhaka | 13 May A mother claimed that her son was shot during the July uprising. She even filed a case seeking justice. However, the investigation has revealed that the claim was entirely false. The case had been fabricated to settle personal grievances. An investigation by the Police Bureau of Investigation (PBI) found that the tenth-grade student had not suffered any gunshot injury. The mother had filed the attempted murder case against local political leaders in Companiganj, Sylhet. In reality, the investigation revealed that the boy had been injured in a road accident at a different location. In another case, a living person was shown as dead. The complaint claimed that a 20-year-old young man had been killed in the Uttara area of the capital during the uprising. However, the PBI investigation found that he is alive and well. These are not isolated incidents. While investigating 195 CR (Complaint Register) cases filed across the country after the July mass uprising, the PBI has found evidence of at least 14 false cases. According to PBI headquarters data, motives behind filing these fake cases ranged from prior enmity to family disputes. Of the 14 false cases, 10 were filed on charges of attempted murder, three for assault and physical abuse, and one for murder.Additionally, in 10 more cases, the PBI found no evidence supporting the allegations. PBI Police Superintendent (Legal and Media) Md Abu Yusuf told The Daily Star last week, “We repeatedly verified the allegations, but found no evidence. In these cases, we have applied to the court through final reports to acquit the accused.” So far, the PBI has completed investigations into 113 out of 195 CR cases. Among these, 89 cases were found to be genuine, including 9 murder cases and the rest involving crimes such as attempted murder.Data analysis shows that in these 89 cases, a total of 6,844 individuals were accused. However, after investigation, evidence was found against only 1,343 individuals. When asked about this, Additional Inspector General of Police (Crime) Khandaker Rafiqul Islam said that accused persons in false cases often face harassment and financial losses.He said, “We may not be able to compensate them. However, under Section 211 of the Penal Code, we can apply to the court to take legal action against those who file false cases. The police are taking such steps in cases related to the July uprising.” Regarding punishment for filing false cases, Section 211 of the Penal Code states that anyone who files a false criminal case may face up to two years of imprisonment, a fine, or both. If the false allegation involves a serious offence, the punishment can be up to seven years of imprisonment. According to a United Nations fact-finding report, 1,400 people were killed in the movement that began in July 2024 demanding quota reforms. The movement ultimately led to the fall of the Awami League government on August 5.According to Police Headquarters data, as of April 4 this year, a total of 1,855 cases have been filed across the country in connection with the incidents of that time. Thousands of people, including members of law enforcement agencies and leaders and activists of the Awami League, have been accused in these cases. The cases are being investigated by the PBI and other police units. Claim of shooting, but it was a motorcycle accidentShihab’s mother, Fatema Akhter Parul, filed an attempted murder case on November 21 last year. The case named 17 individuals, including local political leaders, and accused 15 to 20 unidentified persons.In the complaint, she claimed that on August 4, 2024, her son Shihab was seriously injured when the accused opened fire and threw cocktails in front of the Companiganj Upazila Parishad office gate. However, the PBI investigation revealed completely different information.According to the PBI’s final report, on that day Shihab’s motorcycle collided with a battery-powered auto-rickshaw. The incident occurred at a different place and time. The PBI confirmed this through eyewitness statements and analysis of call detail records (CDR). Medical records from Dhaka Medical College Hospital and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) Hospital also found no evidence of firearm injuries on his body. However, investigators confirmed that Shihab had actively participated in the mass uprising. The investigation also revealed the real motive behind filing the case. The PBI report states that on August 4 and 5, clashes occurred between Awami League supporters and activists of the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement. Later, Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal leader Yusuf Ahmed Jony filed a case against 33 people, including Awami League leader Yakub Ali. Yakub Ali is the uncle-in-law of Shihab’s mother, Parul. The report states that Parul filed the false case against the Chhatra Dal leader and others as a counter to that case.When contacted via the phone number provided in the complaint, Parul’s husband Sharif Uddin answered the call. He claimed that his son is a government gazetted “July fighter” and that he was shot during the uprising. He directly rejected the PBI’s claim that his son’s injuries were caused by a motorcycle accident. He said they have not yet received a copy of the PBI report. “We will challenge this investigation report,” he said.A living person shown as dead While investigating a murder case involving a 20-year-old in Uttara, the PBI found that the man is alive.The youths mother, Parul Khatun (45), filed the case on November 25 last year in the Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Court of Dhaka. The case accused 257 individuals, including over a hundred local Awami League leaders and activists.In the complaint, she alleged that her son, Md Kawser Mia, was shot dead during a student procession in Azampur, Uttara, on July 18, 2024, and that his body was never found. However, the investigating officer discovered that Kawser is alive. In fact, he was arrested on June 2 this year in a case related to preparation for robbery. The PBI could not determine the motive behind filing this false case. ‘Abuse of the legal system’Human rights activist Nur Khan Liton said that such incidents of filing false cases are deeply concerning. He said that after August 5, a vested group has been using these cases as a tool to settle personal scores.The former member of the Commission on Enforced Disappearances said, “Professionals and political activists who have no connection whatsoever have been targeted in these complaints. This is a gross abuse of the legal system. Those who have filed such false cases must face legal action.”
London Dialogue Raises Alarm Over Media Freedom and Human Rights Situation in Bangladesh
PolicyGov Report | London | 23 May 2026 London Dialogue Raises Alarm Over Media Freedom and Human Rights Situation in BangladeshA high-level dialogue on “Media Freedom for Human Rights and Democracy” held in London on 21 May brought together prominent journalists, legal experts, human rights advocates, academics and diaspora community leaders who voiced deep concern over the state of press freedom and democratic rights in Bangladesh. The event, organised by Protect Bangladesh in association with EyeMedia and Bridge Bangla, focused on the detention of journalists, restrictions on free expression and what speakers described as a continuing deterioration of democratic institutions under the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus. Participants strongly condemned the arrest, intimidation and prosecution of journalists in Bangladesh, arguing that many media professionals were facing politically motivated and fabricated allegations following the unrest of 2024. Speakers called for the immediate and unconditional release of detained journalists and warned that continued suppression of the media would further undermine democratic accountability and civil liberties. The keynote speaker, veteran British journalist William Horsley, who worked for the BBC for 35 years and is associated with the Commonwealth Journalists Association, stressed that a free press remains essential for any functioning democracy.Referring to detained Bangladeshi journalists including Shyamal Dutta, Mozammel Haque Babu, Farzana Rupa and Shakil Ahmed, Horsley said it was “completely unacceptable” that they remained imprisoned nearly 18 months after their arrests on what he described as “spurious and groundless charges.” Senior British journalist Rita Payne, former head of BBC South Asia and executive member of the Commonwealth Journalists Association UK, also expressed concern over the continued detention and persecution of journalists in Bangladesh. She criticised the interim administration for failing to safeguard press freedom despite international commitments to democratic values.Barrister Tania Ameer delivered a detailed legal and constitutional analysis of media legislation, institutional accountability and the broader socio-political environment affecting journalism in Bangladesh. She argued that the detention of journalists reflected a systematic attempt to silence dissent, independent thought and critical reporting. According to her observations, the absence of judicial independence and the weakening of the rule of law continue to create conditions in which repression can persist regardless of political transition. Prominent journalist and Commonwealth Journalists Association member Syed Badrul Ahsan criticised what he described as the failure of journalist organisations in Bangladesh to speak out for detained colleagues. He urged journalists and rights defenders both inside and outside Bangladesh to raise stronger international awareness regarding the ongoing crackdown on media professionals. Nahas Pasha, editor of the UK’s oldest Bengali newspaper Janomot and Vice President of the Commonwealth Journalists Association, called for the immediate release of all journalists detained without formal charges or on what he described as fabricated accusations. Joining virtually from New York, former National Press Club president Farida Yasmin alleged that journalists in Bangladesh had faced systematic persecution, including the cancellation of press accreditation, freezing of bank accounts and various forms of psychological and physical harassment. One of the most emotional moments of the discussion came through a virtual address from Australia by Shushma Shashi Dutta, daughter of detained journalist Shyamal Dutta. Speaking about her father’s imprisonment, she highlighted the severe humanitarian and emotional impact prolonged detention has had on the family. She said her father had been held without trial for more than 600 days despite suffering from serious health complications and requiring urgent medical treatment. Her remarks underscored the wider human cost faced by families of detained journalists.London-Bangla Press Club General Secretary Md Akramul Hossain noted that although journalists in Bangladesh have historically faced challenges, the present situation has become increasingly alarming with repeated reports of attacks on journalists while carrying out professional duties. Former Bangladeshi minister and democracy advocate Shafiqur Rahman Chowdhury delivered the vote of thanks and urged international journalists, rights campaigners and democratic institutions to continue raising concerns on global platforms regarding the condition of democracy and press freedom in Bangladesh. The event drew a diverse audience from across the United Kingdom, including journalists, academics, business representatives, lawyers, community leaders and human rights activists. Participants expressed solidarity with detained journalists and praised Protect Bangladesh for organising the dialogue and highlighting concerns surrounding media freedom, democracy and human rights. The programme was moderated by senior journalist and former Bangladesh High Commission press minister Ashequn Nabi Chowdhury.
Expert Comments
Anamitra Chattopadhyay | India |
The record of journalist persecution that has emerged from the period of Muhammad Yunus\'s rule is nothing short of shocking.
Unprecedented Persecution of Journalists Under Yunus; Calls Grow for Nobel Prize to Be Revoked
The record of journalist persecution that has emerged from the period of Muhammad Yunus\'s rule is nothing short of shocking.
As head of Grameen Bank, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Many critics have long argued that Muhammad Yunus is the architect of a business model that profits by trapping the poorest people in poor countries in cycles of high-interest debt. Ever since that model received international recognition through the Nobel Prize, aided, according to critics, by the direct intervention of influential friends in the United States, controversy has surrounded both the award and the model itself.
After 18 months of governing Bangladesh, Yunus\'s actions have also come under intense scrutiny. His government suspended the country\'s vaccination programme. As a result, with herd immunity shattered, the number of child deaths from measles is reportedly approaching 600, while infections have surpassed one hundred thousand. Now, the record of journalist persecution under Yunus that has come to light is equally alarming. Many are demanding that the Nobel authorities revoke Yunus\'s Nobel Prize over what they describe as grave human rights violations.
After the departure of the Yunus government, journalists who had found themselves cornered, regardless of political affiliation, formed an organisation called the Anti-Persecution Journalists Front. Bringing together information from across the country, the organisation has compiled and published a detailed account of the alleged persecution.
According to the report, the Yunus government implicated more than 500 journalists in what it describes as fabricated criminal cases carrying severe charges, including murder. A statement issued by the organisation says: \"More than fifty journalists were arrested. Thirteen journalists were killed. In addition, around 1,200 journalists lost their jobs. Government accreditation cards of 168 professional journalists were revoked. Memberships of more than 700 journalists were cancelled or suspended by various press clubs, including the National Press Club.\"
Officials of the organisation state that during Yunus\'s tenure, 47 journalists across the country were arrested, including Shahriar Kabir, Mozammel Babu, Shyamal Dutta, Shakil Ahmed, Farzana Rupa, Sheikh Jamal, Manjurul Alam Panna and Anis Alamgir. Only a small number of them have since been released on bail. The organisation further alleges that 13 journalists, including Mehedi Hasan, Shakil Hossain, Tahir Zaman, ATM Turab, Pradip Kumar Bhowmik and Sohel Akhanji, were killed.
The Anti-Persecution Journalists Front also states that supporters of Yunus were responsible for acts of vandalism, attacks and arson targeting the offices of BTV, 71 TV, Somoy TV, DBC News, Gaan Bangla, ATN News, ATN Bangla, My TV, Bijoy TV, News24, and the newspapers Amader Orthoniti, Amader Notun Shomoy, Dainik Mukhopatro, Kaler Kantho, Bangladesh Pratidin, Daily Sun, Bangla News, Prothom Alo and The Daily Star.
According to the statement, editors, news chiefs and journalists from various media organisations were subjected to pressure, resulting in the dismissal of approximately 1,200 journalists during Yunus\'s administration.
Recently, journalists took to the streets of Dhaka, forming a human chain and demanding the withdrawal of all false cases filed against them. They called for the release of imprisoned journalists, justice for murdered journalists, reinstatement of those who lost their jobs, and the reopening of the offices of the two journalist organisations, DUJ and BFUJ.
They also demanded justice for looting and arson attacks on newspaper offices, restoration of memberships cancelled by press clubs across the country, including the National Press Club, reversal of accreditation card cancellations, withdrawal of orders freezing journalists\' bank accounts, and removal of restrictions imposed on their foreign travel.
Many campaigners are now characterising the organised persecution of journalists as a serious violation of human rights and are calling on the Nobel authorities to revoke Yunus\'s Nobel Prize. They argue that allowing such a ruler to continue being identified as a Nobel laureate damages the reputation and moral standing of the award itself.
The BNP government led by Tarique Rahman recently completed its first 100 days in office after winning the election. Although no new cases or attacks against journalists have been reported under the current administration, the cases filed during Yunus\'s tenure have not yet been withdrawn.
Police have reportedly failed to submit charge sheets against imprisoned journalists even after 18 to 20 months. Despite this, they have not been granted bail. In many instances, journalists who secured bail in existing cases have allegedly been implicated in new cases and kept behind bars.
During a meeting with editors, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman assured media representatives that his government does not believe in suppressing or controlling the press. He also promised to review the cases filed against journalists. However, according to critics, none of these commitments have been implemented during the government\'s first 100 days.
Akhtar Hossain, Convenor of the Anti-Persecution Journalists Front, said: \"The responsibility for releasing journalists imprisoned during the Yunus era and ending the persecution of journalists now lies with the current government. If it fails to fulfil that responsibility, it will be assumed that it has taken a position against journalists. Public expectations from a political government are high. Please free the journalists."
Anamitra Chattopadhyay is a senior journalist and columnist, formerly of Anandabazar Patrika and currently associated with Ei Samay. He specialises in Bangladesh affairs, South Asian politics and regional geopolitics.
Editorial note for PolicyGov:
"The views expressed in this article are those of the author. The allegations cited are based on claims made by the Anti-Persecution Journalists Front and have not been independently verified by PolicyGov."
Prof Selim Raihan warns the deal raises serious questions about Bangladesh’s economic sovereignty and geopolitical balance
A trade agreement signed between Bangladesh and the United States on February 9 — just days before a national election — has triggered sharp criticism from economists and policy observers.
The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, concluded by the interim government in the final days of its tenure, offers only a marginal reduction in US tariffs. Yet it binds Bangladesh to a sweeping framework covering defence, energy, trade, labour standards and digital governance.
“The agreement could reshape Bangladesh’s economic autonomy, geopolitical balance and long-term development path,” said Professor Selim Raihan, Executive Director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), in an extended interview.
Raihan described the deal as “highly unequal”, “rushed” and “potentially damaging” to Bangladesh’s strategic independence.
A Question of Timing
Raihan’s first concern centres on timing. The agreement was finalised by an interim administration just days before the election — a move he believes sets a troubling precedent.
“I do not understand why our interim government rushed to sign this agreement just before the election,” he said. “This should have been left to the newly elected government. Waiting one or two months would not have created major problems.”
He contrasted Bangladesh’s approach with India’s slower and more cautious negotiations with Washington.
“I was informed that India and the United States have not yet signed their trade agreement. If a country like India has not finalised such a deal, why were we in such a hurry?” he asked.
Raihan argued that an agreement of this magnitude required parliamentary scrutiny and broad consultation with exporters, business leaders and trade experts.
“Stakeholders were not properly consulted,” he said. “The process is deeply concerning.”
Imbalance in Obligations
One of Raihan’s strongest criticisms concerns the imbalance of commitments.
“In the 32-page document, the phrase ‘Bangladesh shall’ appears 158 times, while ‘the United States shall’ appears only nine times,” he noted. “This shows that most obligations fall on Bangladesh.”
Under the agreement, Bangladesh will open its market to approximately 6,700 US products — including chemicals, medical devices, machinery, ICT equipment, motor vehicles, beef and poultry. In contrast, the US grants duty-free or preferential access to around 2,500 Bangladeshi items.
In return, Washington reduces its reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports from 20 percent to 19 percent.
“For a trade agreement between the most powerful economy in the world and one of the weakest economies among least developed countries, this is highly unequal,” Raihan said.
“The weaker country is offering more, while the superpower is offering less. Bangladesh is effectively granting special and differential treatment to the United States.”
Strategic and Sovereignty Concerns
Beyond trade, Raihan raised concerns about provisions that may constrain Bangladesh’s policy autonomy.
The agreement requires Bangladesh to endeavour to increase purchases of US military equipment and restrict procurement from certain countries — language widely interpreted as targeting China. It also allows Washington to terminate the deal if Bangladesh signs trade agreements with countries classified as non-market economies.
“In areas such as defence procurement and trade relations with other countries, Bangladesh may effectively require US endorsement,” Raihan said. “This raises concerns about sovereign decision-making.”
The deal also emphasises “economic and national security alignment,” which Raihan described as potentially intrusive.
“This is not just about trade. It is geopolitics,” he said. “Bangladesh is vulnerable in global geopolitical competition, and we must be careful.”
Risk to Non-Aligned Status
Raihan warned that the agreement could gradually shift Bangladesh away from its long-standing non-aligned foreign policy stance.
One provision requires Bangladesh to adopt complementary restrictive measures if the US imposes border or trade actions on national security grounds. Critics argue this could effectively bind Dhaka to US sanctions regimes.
“If the United States bans products from certain countries, Bangladesh may be expected to support that,” Raihan said. “This could alter our non-aligned position.”
Managing relations with China — Bangladesh’s largest import partner — would become particularly complex.
“China is our largest import source, yet the US has ongoing trade conflicts with China,” he said. “If Bangladesh is pressured to reduce imports from China, it will be extremely difficult. We need balanced relations with everyone — China, India, the US and others.”
‘Zero Tariff’ Confusion
Raihan also criticised what he called misleading communication about tariff benefits.
“When officials spoke of ‘zero tariff’ for products using US cotton, it actually refers to zero reciprocal tariff — not total tariff removal,” he explained. “The original Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) tariff remains.”
Many exporters reportedly misunderstood the provision as full tariff elimination.
Managed Trade and Financial Pressure
Another major concern is the shift toward what Raihan describes as “managed trade”.
Bangladesh has committed to purchasing approximately $15 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas over 15 years, alongside increased imports of aircraft and agricultural goods.
This includes plans for Biman Bangladesh Airlines to purchase 14 Boeing aircraft and at least $3.5 billion in US agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and cotton.
“The idea is to reduce the bilateral trade deficit,” Raihan said. “But this means importing more from the United States regardless of competitive pricing.”
He warned that Bangladesh could be compelled to buy higher-cost goods even when cheaper alternatives exist.
“This will put additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves,” he said. “How will we finance aircraft purchases and energy imports? There is a risk of increased reliance on foreign loans.”
Labour and Regulatory Changes
The agreement also requires amendments to labour laws, including expanded union rights and bringing export processing zones under national labour standards within two years.
“Labour is a very sensitive issue in Bangladesh,” Raihan said. “If these provisions create uncertainty among investors, particularly in the garment sector, it could create serious problems.”
He further expressed concern about clauses requiring Bangladesh to recognise US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals for pharmaceuticals and medical devices — potentially weakening domestic regulatory authority.
Limited Positives
Despite his criticisms, Raihan acknowledged some potential benefits.
“There is a positive area in addressing non-tariff barriers,” he said. “But reforms should apply universally, not just for one country.”
Reducing bureaucratic inefficiencies could benefit both domestic and foreign businesses, he added.
A Dilemma for the Next Government
Raihan believes the agreement will present a significant challenge for the incoming administration.
“The next government will already face domestic political and economic pressures,” he said. “They may seek a review rather than outright cancellation.”
Cancelling the deal could harm Bangladesh’s credibility.
“Signing and then cancelling sends a negative signal to trading partners,” he noted.
Yet moving forward would lock Bangladesh into long-term financial and strategic commitments.
“The pressure will remain — financial, strategic and geopolitical,” Raihan said.
“We need everyone — China, India, the United States and others. Maintaining that balance is crucial for Bangladesh’s future.”
Selim Raihan
12 February 2026, 00:00 AM
The Daily Start
Three features distinguish the upcoming national election in ways rarely seen before: the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami, the rise of Tarique Rahman as a central figure in contemporary politics, and—unthinkable until August 2024—the sidelining of the Awami League from the electoral contest.
Since its role during the Liberation War—when it opposed the birth of Bangladesh, aided the Pakistan Army in committing genocide, and collaborated with al-Badr and al-Shams in the killing of intellectuals—Jamaat-e-Islami has remained one of the most controversial actors in our political history. Its refusal to apologise explicitly for its role in 1971 or seek forgiveness from the people of Bangladesh has long rendered its political acceptability deeply questionable.
Its current position, articulated by party chief Dr Shafiqur Rahman—that “if we have committed any mistake since 1947 till date, we apologise for it”—is telling. By avoiding any direct reference to 1971, Jamaat continues to evade accountability for opposing the independence struggle and acting against the aspirations of freedom-loving people. This refusal remains among the most tragic aspects of our political journey.
Yet despite this legacy, Jamaat is today a formidable presence in the upcoming election. Opinion polls suggest it may emerge as the second-largest party in the next parliament. How did a party burdened with such a past manage this resurgence?
The most significant factor is Jamaat’s strategic mobilisation of the growing consciousness of Muslim identity among the majority of Bangladeshis, positioning itself as its most authentic representative. This was made possible by the failure of the two centrist parties—the Awami League in particular, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party to a lesser extent—to firmly entrench a durable tradition of nationalistic and secular politics in the public imagination.
Both parties governed the country since 1991, yet their performance increasingly alienated voters. The Awami League’s corrupt, exploitative, and oppressive rule over more than fifteen years—ending in August 2024—proved especially damaging. Ironically, a party whose legitimacy was rooted in its role in 1971 squandered that moral capital, opening space for Jamaat’s political rehabilitation.
Jamaat’s ideological consistency, organisational discipline, and the dedication of its grassroots activists have further strengthened its position. Its long-term infiltration of Chhatra League structures, sometimes even assuming second-tier leadership roles, demonstrates strategic patience and organisational skill. Shibir’s recent victories in student union elections at five public universities further underline this success. Reports also suggest that Jamaat’s female grassroots workers have been particularly effective in door-to-door campaigning.
In this context, Jamaat’s electoral ally, the National Citizen Party (NCP), also warrants attention. Born out of the July uprising, NCP entered electoral politics amid high expectations. Its decision to align with the Jamaat-led bloc may prove consequential—both in the immediate election and for its long-term political identity.
The second defining feature of this election is the rise of Tarique Rahman. Though long regarded as the heir apparent, the scale and speed of his ascent have been striking. Operating from London for years while his mother remained incarcerated, he managed to keep the BNP not only alive but disciplined and cohesive—no small feat under relentless repression.
Tarique Rahman’s direct communication with grassroots leaders through mobile and internet platforms fostered loyalty and pride among younger BNP activists. Repeated attempts by the Awami League to fracture the party or co-opt senior leaders were thwarted by his persuasive engagement. Fifteen years is a long time in Bangladeshi politics, and the BNP’s survival through that period is a testament to his organisational capacity.
Many felt he delayed his return to Bangladesh after the fall of the Awami League government. Yet when he did return, the impact was immediate. His presence electrified party workers, energised supporters, and restored confidence. Massive public turnouts and warm receptions at his appearances have made him a central force in the electoral landscape.
Thus far, he has conducted himself with restraint and maturity. His speeches have been measured, forward-looking, and policy-oriented—standing in contrast to the rhetoric-heavy approach of many others. Whether he has translated this momentum into effective nationwide campaign organisation will become clear only after the polls. But he has convincingly stepped into the political space once occupied by his late mother, whose janaza remains a powerful reminder of the affection and respect she commanded.
The third and perhaps most consequential feature of this election is the effective exclusion of the Awami League. The party has not been formally banned, but its political activities have been. How could a party so integral to the birth and history of Bangladesh become so vulnerable as to be sidelined from a national election?
The reasons are many—extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances—but the decisive factor lies in the brutal street violence during the final weeks of its rule. One incident encapsulates this collapse of legitimacy: the killing of Abu Sayed, an unarmed university student standing alone, posing no threat, shot dead by police. That single act symbolised the moral and political implosion of the regime.
The government’s subsequent conduct—tampering with autopsy reports, attempting justification instead of accountability, and continuing the killing of demonstrators—sealed its fate. The loss was total: public trust, credibility, and legitimacy. The ban on AL’s activities flowed directly from this record.
Where Awami League voters will shift their support on February 12 may well determine the election’s outcome.
An additional feature worth noting is the eclipse of the Jatiya Party, once dominant under General HM Ershad and consistently the third-largest force in parliament since 1990. Its marginalisation reflects the profound restructuring underway in Bangladesh’s political order.
Elections are always pivotal in a democracy. This year, however, they carry exceptional weight. Bangladesh urgently needs stability, predictability, an end to mobocracy, renewed investment, and restored public safety. These can only begin with an elected parliament, an accountable government, capable policymakers, and a clear national vision.
We conclude with a warning drawn from experience. While we are enthusiastic about elections, we have historically been unwilling to accept defeat. Losing candidates accept results more readily than losing parties—those that fail to form the government often delegitimise the process itself. We have seen this repeatedly, even under caretaker governments.
As we once observed, the mindset has been: an election is free and fair if we win, but rigged if we lose. This attitude must end.
It is our sincere hope that all political actors accept the outcome with grace and dignity. If there are fact-based grounds for challenge, pursue them through the mechanisms laid down by the Election Commission. Do not resort to chaos or disruption. The nation must move forward—peacefully and urgently.
Here’s to a free, fair, and peaceful election.
Mahfuz Anam is the editor and publisher of The Daily Star.
Views expressed are the author’s own.
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High-Level Bangladesh Seminar to Be Held at the House of Lords on 28 January
A high-level international seminar titled “Bangladesh at the Crossroads: Democratic Stability, Investment and Diaspora Safety” will be held on Wednesday, 28 January 2026, at the House of Lords, London, bringing together senior parliamentarians, legal experts, academics, policymakers, and representatives of the British Bangladeshi diaspora.The seminar is jointly hosted by Lord Rami Ranger FRSA, Politika News, the Northampton British Bangladeshi Business Chamber, and the Centre for Global Policy and Governance (CGPG). The event aims to provide a balanced parliamentary platform to examine Bangladesh’s current political trajectory, democratic governance, rule of law, investment confidence, minority protection, and the evolving role of the diaspora.The discussion will feature Members of the House of Lords and House of Commons, constitutional and legal experts, senior academics from leading UK universities, journalists, business leaders, representatives of human rights organisations, and prominent figures from the British Bangladeshi community.Key themes of the seminar include:Democratic legitimacy and constitutional governanceElectoral integrity and political participationJudicial accountability and international legal standardsDiaspora engagement, investment, and remittance growthStrengthening UK–Bangladesh long-term partnershipsA formal post-seminar publication and e-book will be produced, compiling expert contributions and policy recommendations arising from the discussions.The seminar reflects growing parliamentary and public interest in Bangladesh at a critical moment, particularly given the size and significance of the British Bangladeshi diaspora in the United Kingdom.Venue: Committee Room, House of LordsTime: 3:15 PMDate: Wednesday, 28 January 2026